S&P 500
SPY · daily close Oct 9, 2026Up Main scenario Main and alternative scenarioOften several counts fit: the main scenario ranks first, the alternative behind it – each with its own invalidation level. Per timeframe, the detection picks the count with the largest share of guidelines met, in a tie the simpler or clearer one. This is not a probability.Example: Main: waves 1–2 complete, wave 3 expected, 2 of 3 guidelines; alternative: five waves, wave 5 possibly truncated, 3 of 6.More in the Academy: Lesson wave degrees
As long as the daily close stays above start of wave 1 (Woche vom 30.03.2026), this applies: wave 3 in progress – count points to rising prices.
If that breaks, the count is invalid. There is no alternative at the moment – the next daily candles will produce a new count.
Strength of the count: weak (0 of 3 guidelines) Guidelines (strength of the count)Guidelines are typical features of a count, such as usual Fibonacci lengths or a change in the form of correction. Strong means: at least three quarters met, medium: at least half, otherwise weak. Even a strong count can flip.Example: 3 of 3 guidelines → strong; 2 of 4 → medium; 1 of 3 → weak.More in the Academy: Lesson wave degrees What does invalid mean? Invalidation levelThe price at which a count can no longer be right. For wave 2 it is the start of wave 1: a daily close below it ends the setup.Example: Start of wave 1 at 100: wick down to 99.50 and close 101 → still valid; close 99 → invalid.More in the Academy: Lesson wave degrees
Commentary of the week · Week 41/2026
Weekly commentary available in German
Unser Hauptszenario ist eine vorläufige Zählung (0 von 3 Richtlinien erfüllt): Wochenchart aufwärts, Welle 3 läuft. Möglich sind damit steigende Kurse; ungültig bei einem Wochenschluss unter dem Start von Welle 1 (Woche vom 30.03.2026). Eine zweite gültige Zählung gibt es zurzeit nicht. Nächste Woche wichtig: ob der Wochenschluss die Ungültig-Marke des Hauptszenarios hält; im Tageschart gibt es zurzeit kein Setup. Die Wellenzählung ist nicht getestet. Hilfe für eigene Entscheidungen, keine Anlageberatung.
Data updated on Oct 9, 2026 – text from Oct 11, 2026